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jueves, 17 de diciembre de 2020

INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 17 de diciembre de 2020 Comentario de la mesa

 

Hola, buen día. Empezamos con precios sobre 19.80, con movimientos entre 19.74 y 19.8850 durante la operación nocturna, la debilidad del dólar ante la inminente autorización del paquete de estímulos en la Unión Americana es una de las principales razones de mantener el precio en estos niveles, esto después de que ayer pospusieron hasta el mes de enero la discusión en el Congreso sobre la Ley Banxico.

Hoy el mercado estará muy pendiente de la decisión de Política Monetaria de Banxico, el consenso es mantener la tasa en 4.25% y es lo que hasta el momento está descontado; ahora bien, si la decisión fuera únicamente por inflación (mandato Constitucional), creo que la decisión de hoy podría ser de una baja de 25 puntos base, aunque existen diferentes factores, entre ellos el poco impacto de las tasas en el crecimiento de nuestro país, esto además de que Banxico siempre ha tenido la prudencia de la inteligencia y podrían estar viendo “más allá de lo evidente”. Muy pendientes a las 13 horas.

Técnicamente para el peso vemos niveles de 19.75 como soporte importante, con resistencia inmediata en 19.85, esto para el intraday con niveles en extensión sobre 19.70 y 19.89 dependiendo de fundamentales de hoy.

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Good morning,

Asia-Pacific stock markets closed positive this Thursday, reacting to Fed ́s measures. Shanghai Shenzhen was up 1.28% while Australian S&P jumped +1.16%. Unemployment in Australia was 6.8% on November, slightly better than October ́s 7%. European markets are on the same pathway, with German DAX up +0.74%. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged and maintained its target of asset purchase of $1.2 trillion. Wall Street futures are expecting a positive opening.

The Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates unchanged near zero, as was expected, and Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday that they will buy at least $120 billion of bonds each month, until substantial further progress is made towards maximum employment and stability goals.

Congress in the US is close to agree on a $900 stimulus package, that would include direct payments to individuals, this just before a government shutdown on Friday.

EU ́s Chief negotiator just said that there had been good progress in trade talks with Britain, that will prevent a turbulent end to the Brexit crisis, but a British official said that the sides were still far apart. British Pound is 1.36, highest level since May 2018, Euro is 1.2250, highest level since April 2018, the Peso is 19.50. Oil is $48.25 USD per barrel and gold is $1,895.80 USD per ounce.

This Day in History!

A day like today in 1991, After a long meeting between Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and President of the Russian Federation Boris Yeltsin, a spokesman for the latter announces that the Soviet Union will officially cease to exist on or before New Year’s Eve. Yeltsin declared that, “There will be no more red flag.” It was a rather anti-climactic culmination of events leading toward the dismantling of the Soviet Union.

It was all a rather unexciting end to the nation President Ronald Reagan once called “the evil empire.”

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