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jueves, 12 de noviembre de 2020

INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 12 de noviembre de 2020 Comentario de la mesa

 

Rangos entre 20.4350 y 20.6250 aproximadamente durante la operación nocturna, cargado a la parte alta durante la mayor parte de la jornada y esto debido a que hoy es uno de los días que tenemos datos más importantes. Si bien es cierto que se acaban de publicar ya los datos de inflación y desempleo en EEUU (en línea con lo estimado), lo que resalta el día de hoy es la decisión de política monetaria en nuestro país, difundida por Banco de México a las 13 horas (local). En el mercado se percibe que una reducción de 25 puntos base puede ser viable, aunque no se descartan sorpresas.

Habrá que estar también atentos a las calificadoras ya que recientemente Fitch, aunque mantuvo su postura, no sorprendió a los mercados debido a que anteriormente ya lo tenía sólo un peldaño por encima del “Grado especulativo”; lo relevantes, según mi perspectiva, son las que vengan de S&P BBB(rojo) y Moody ́s Baa1(rojo) ya que están a 2 y 3 peldaños respectivamente por encima de perder el grado de inversión que, en caso dado de que suceda, motivaría una salida automática de capitales de nuestro país.

Técnicamente vemos niveles de soporte marcados en 20.48 y 20.3550, mientras que los niveles inmediatos de resistencias los vemos en 20.63 y 20.75 en extensión.

Rangos iniciales 20.48/20.63.

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Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mostly lower this Thursday, Australian S&P dipped -0.49% and South Korea’s Kospi shed -0.41%, on the other side Japanese Nikkei closed up +0.68%. In Europe, markets are negative by mid-day, with German Dax losing as much as -1.35%, and UK’s FTSE dropping -1.04%, even after UK economy grew by a record 15.5% in the third quarter, but with a second partial lockdown until at least December 2, the recovery could lose steam and derail recovery. Futures in Wall Street are expecting a negative opening.

Pandemic situation remains severe, with the US setting a new record of average daily cases (121,153) and the UK reported its worst day in deaths.

Markets are looking forward Moderna phase three results that could bring another vaccine soon.

Oil is $41.82 USD per barrel, gold is $1,875.50 USD per ounce, the British Pound is 1.3165, as post-Brexit talks are running out of time, the Euro is 1.18 and the Peso is 20.55. Investors will be looking forward on Banxico’s decision on monetary policy, were a rate cut is expected.

This Day in History!

A day like today in 1990, Crown Prince Akihito, the 125th Japanese monarch along an imperial line dating back to 660 B.C., is enthroned as emperor of Japan two years after the death of his father.

Akihito, the only son of the late Emperor Hirohito, was the first Japanese monarch to reign solely as an official figurehead. Akihito caused controversy in 1959, when as heir to the Japanese throne he broke a 1,500-year-old tradition and married a commoner, Shoda Michiko, the daughter of a wealthy businessman. Upon becoming emperor, Akihito, an amateur marine biologist and accomplished cellist, commenced a new Japanese era, known as Heisei, or “Achieving Peace.” The imperial couple have three children: Crown Prince Naruhito, born in 1960; Prince Akishino, born in 1965; and Princess Nori, born in 1969.

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